refactor(linkedin-studio): S31a multiplier-scrub (reference-docs) — unsourced "Nx" reach/format multipliers -> SSOT

Hardening, multiplier class (S31, batch a). Surgical SSOT-reconciliation of
unsourced "Nx" reach/format/growth multipliers asserted as fact in 7 reference
docs. Same discipline as S27/S28/S30: read-and-show -> grep-confirm -> re-grep
final; 8-step interactive gate; operator-approved catalog before edit.

26 edits / 7 files (+32/-32):
- collaborations-guide (10): 10x reach (:3,:476), 2-3x normal (:32), and the six
  per-format "Reach multiplier: Nx" fields (:165/:187/:210/:235/:252/:277) +
  the label-only :292 (no number) folded in for consistency -> "Reach:" with
  directional, no-reliable-multiplier wording.
- linkedin-growth-playbook (10): 3x faster growth (:57/:132), 1.6x reach (:175),
  1.4x engagement (:205), 1.64x poll (:234), the format-multiplier list
  (:246-251 -> SSOT format ranking, numbers dropped), 3.6x respond (:386),
  3x engagements (:422), 5.6x follower growth (:493), 40x search (:636).
- poll-strategy-guide:7 (1.64x), articles-strategy-guide:28-29 (2-3x/10x),
  video-strategy-guide:308 (2-3x distribution), ab-testing-framework:49
  (1.17x-1.6x format multipliers), trajectory:40 (2-3x saves) + :85 (3x).

Vocabulary 1:1 with S30: "tend to / more reach (multiplier unverified)",
"no reliable multiplier", format ranking kept + number dropped -> cite SSOT.

KEPT INTACT: SSOT-backed engagement-order multipliers (save ~= 5x a like,
quality comment ~= 2x a like, ~= 1x baseline). OUT of scope (untouched):
frequency counts (5x5x5, Nx/week), pixel dims, pricing/size-ratio multipliers.

SURFACED -> S31c (descriptive-% subpass, not edited here): growth:58 (130%
follow), growth:177/178 (Buffer 178%/247%), trajectory:39 (30-40%). Flagged
as absolute-figure class outside S31: growth:421/423. Sourcing overclaim to
revisit: growth:492 "Official LinkedIn data".

VERIFY: re-grep residual targets in 7 files -> 0; routed siblings + KEEP intact;
gate scripts/test-runner.sh = 81/0/0 exit 0, counts 29/19/26 + v0.5.0 unchanged.

Push held: origin = open/ (public namespace), STATE.md must not go there;
parked arrow is all-or-nothing pending STATE-placement fix.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_016qgzo6rxthw7KuxHjn5vyE

references/ab-testing-framework.md

@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ Organized by impact level. Always start with high-impact variables.
 | # | Variable | What to Test | Why It Matters |
 |---|----------|-------------|----------------|
 | 1 | **Hook/Opening line** | Question vs. statement, personal vs. universal, short vs. long (within 110-140 char limit) | Determines whether anyone clicks "see more." Single biggest driver of impressions. |
-| 2 | **Post format** | Text-only vs. carousel vs. poll vs. video vs. document | Format multipliers range from 1.17x (text) to 1.6x (carousel). Audience preference varies. |
+| 2 | **Post format** | Text-only vs. carousel vs. poll vs. video vs. document | Format shifts reach (documents/carousels rank highest) but no reliable per-format multiplier holds — see `references/algorithm-signals-reference.md`. Audience preference varies. |
 | 3 | **Content angle** | Story-based vs. tactical vs. contrarian vs. curation | Angle determines comment quality and engagement depth. |
 | 4 | **Call-to-action** | Question vs. invitation vs. challenge vs. none | CTA drives comments (strongest algorithm signal after saves). |
 

references/articles-strategy-guide.md

@@ -25,8 +25,8 @@ LinkedIn Articles are the platform's native long-form content format - distinct
 
 ### The Trade-off
 
-- Articles get 2-3x LESS initial reach than posts
-- BUT they have 10x longer lifespan (found via search for months/years)
+- Articles tend to get less initial reach than posts (no reliable multiplier)
+- BUT they have a much longer lifespan (found via search for months/years)
 - Articles build authority profile; posts build engagement metrics
 
 ### When Articles Make Sense

references/collaborations-guide.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Strategic Collaborations Guide
 
-Collaboration is one of the most underutilized growth accelerators on LinkedIn. Strategic partnerships can 10x your reach and credibility by tapping into complementary audiences.
+Collaboration is one of the most underutilized growth accelerators on LinkedIn. Strategic partnerships can substantially expand your reach and credibility by tapping into complementary audiences.
 
 ---
 
@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ Collaboration is one of the most underutilized growth accelerators on LinkedIn.
 
 ### Growth Acceleration Data
 
-- Collaborations generate 2-3x normal reach
+- Collaborations tend to generate above-baseline reach (no reliable multiplier)
 - 40-60% of collaborator's engaged audience visits your profile
 - 10-15% conversion to new followers
 - Higher quality followers (already interested in your topics)
@@ -162,7 +162,7 @@ After establishing rapport:
 - **Their post:** "Great conversation with [You] about [topic]. Here's what I shared: [key points]. Their follow-up questions revealed [additional insight]."
 
 **Time investment:** 30-45 minutes total
-**Reach multiplier:** 2-3x
+**Reach:** Above baseline — expands to your collaborator's audience (no reliable multiplier)
 
 **Topic examples:**
 - "How do you approach [common challenge]?"
@@ -184,7 +184,7 @@ After establishing rapport:
 - Both posts link to each other: "My colleague [Name] addresses the technical side brilliantly. Check their perspective + mine for complete picture."
 
 **Time investment:** 1 hour (including coordination)
-**Reach multiplier:** 2-3x
+**Reach:** Above baseline — expands to your collaborator's audience (no reliable multiplier)
 **Benefit:** Shows diverse perspectives, positions you as collaborative thinker
 
 **Format variations:**
@@ -207,7 +207,7 @@ After establishing rapport:
 - Both create content explaining framework from different angles
 
 **Time investment:** 3-5 hours (including creation and coordination)
-**Reach multiplier:** 3-5x
+**Reach:** Above baseline; deeper integration than a single co-post (no reliable multiplier)
 **Benefit:** Creates reusable asset, positions both as thought leaders, deeper integration
 
 **Execution:**
@@ -232,7 +232,7 @@ After establishing rapport:
 - Caption explains collaboration
 
 **Time investment:** 2-3 hours
-**Reach multiplier:** 4-6x (carousels perform well)
+**Reach:** Above baseline (carousels perform well; no reliable multiplier)
 **Benefit:** High-value format, shareable, clear co-creation
 
 ### Format 5: Live Conversation/LinkedIn Live
@@ -249,7 +249,7 @@ After establishing rapport:
 - Promote 3-5 days advance
 
 **Time investment:** 1 hour live + 1 hour prep and promotion
-**Reach multiplier:** 12-24x (LinkedIn Live favored by algorithm)
+**Reach:** Tends to be the strongest of these formats — LinkedIn Live is favored by the algorithm (no reliable multiplier)
 **Benefit:** Real-time engagement, authenticity, captures both audiences simultaneously
 
 **Topics that work:**
@@ -274,7 +274,7 @@ After establishing rapport:
 - All post same week, tag each other, use consistent hashtag
 
 **Time investment:** 2-3 hours (coordination + content creation)
-**Reach multiplier:** 3-4x per collaborator
+**Reach:** Scales with each collaborator (no reliable multiplier)
 **Benefit:** Positions you within community of experts, major visibility spike
 
 ### Format 7: Takeovers
@@ -289,7 +289,7 @@ After establishing rapport:
 "Today [Your Name] is taking over with their perspective on [topic]. [Your bio]. Take it away, [Name]:"
 
 **Time investment:** 1-2 hours
-**Reach multiplier:** Direct exposure to their entire audience
+**Reach:** Direct exposure to their entire audience
 **Benefit:** Credibility transfer, audience introduction, variety for both audiences
 
 ---
@@ -473,4 +473,4 @@ High-performing creators often form informal masterminds:
 
 ## Bottom Line
 
-Strategic collaborations provide 10x more growth acceleration than equivalent time spent creating solo content. Start building genuine relationships with complementary creators now, even if collaboration is months away.
+Strategic collaborations can accelerate growth well beyond equivalent time spent creating solo content (no reliable multiplier). Start building genuine relationships with complementary creators now, even if collaboration is months away.

references/linkedin-growth-playbook-2025-2026.md

@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ Complete reference guide for growing from hundreds to thousands of engaged follo
 How long users spend viewing content with at least 50% visible on screen. LinkedIn found "skip threshold" exists—content viewed briefly is considered skipped.
 
 **Critical stats:**
-- Posts that get saved: **3x faster audience growth**
+- Posts that get saved: **faster audience growth** (multiplier unverified — saves top the engagement order; see `references/algorithm-signals-reference.md`)
 - Users who save your content: **130% higher chance of following you**
 - Only ~3% of posts reach save-worthy status
 
@@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ The advantage isn't a formal "boost" with a cliff — it's a window where consis
 | Formats | Stick to text | Mix text + carousels + images | Algorithm maps format preferences faster |
 | Profile | Optimize gradually | Complete on day 1 | Every visit during high-distribution period should convert |
 | Engagement | 5-10 comments/day | 15-20 comments/day | Maximize visibility while algorithm surfaces you |
-| Saves | Nice to have | Critical metric | Saves drive 3x faster audience growth — front-load save-worthy content |
+| Saves | Nice to have | Critical metric | Saves drive faster audience growth (figure unverified) — front-load save-worthy content |
 
 **What Happens After 90 Days:**
 
@@ -172,7 +172,7 @@ LinkedIn removed hashtag following, hashtag pages, and "Talks About" sections in
 ### Carousel Posts (PDF Documents)
 
 **Performance:**
-- **1.6x more reach** than average posts
+- **More reach** than average posts (multiplier unverified — see `references/algorithm-signals-reference.md`)
 - Highest engagement ratios of any format
 - Buffer experiment: 14,001 impressions vs 5,033 for text posts (178% increase)
 - 381 engagements vs 110 for text (247% increase)
@@ -202,7 +202,7 @@ LinkedIn removed hashtag following, hashtag pages, and "Talks About" sections in
 ### Video Content: The Paradox
 
 **LinkedIn's data:**
-- 1.4x more engagement than other formats
+- More engagement than other formats (multiplier unverified)
 - #2 format but **declining** in reach; quality of engagement is debated — add captions, most watch muted (see `references/algorithm-signals-reference.md`)
 
 **Successful creator perspective (Lara Acosta, #1 UK female creator):**
@@ -231,7 +231,7 @@ LinkedIn removed hashtag following, hashtag pages, and "Talks About" sections in
 ### Polls
 
 **Performance:**
-- **1.64x reach multiplier** (declining due to overuse)
+- **Above-baseline reach, now declining** due to overuse (no reliable multiplier)
 - Still generates high impressions but effectiveness declining
 - Easy engagement mechanism
 
@@ -243,12 +243,12 @@ LinkedIn removed hashtag following, hashtag pages, and "Talks About" sections in
 
 ### Format Performance Summary (2025-2026 Data)
 
-**Reach multipliers:**
-1. Polls: 1.64x (declining)
-2. Carousels: 1.6x
-3. Text: 1.17x
-4. Video: 1.4x (but quality of engagement debated)
-5. Multi-image: Highest engagement rate for mid-sized accounts
+**Format reach (directional — no reliable multipliers; see `references/algorithm-signals-reference.md`):**
+1. Documents / carousels — top organic format
+2. Multi-image — strong, slightly below documents
+3. Text-only — most resilient; best comment quality
+4. Native video — #2 but declining
+5. Polls — declining effectiveness; audience research only
 
 ---
 
@@ -383,7 +383,7 @@ Never "pitch-slap" by sending walls of text promoting services immediately after
   - Profile viewers
   - Post engagers
   - Comment conversation participants
-- These warm leads are **3.6x more likely to respond** than cold contacts
+- These warm leads are **far more likely to respond** than cold contacts (figure unverified)
 
 **Conversation-starting framework:**
 1. Observation about something you noticed
@@ -419,7 +419,7 @@ Start professional dialogue, not sales pitch. Build relationships that convert o
 
 **11+ posts weekly:**
 - +16,946 more impressions per post
-- 3x more engagements
+- Markedly more engagements
 - +1.40 percentage point engagement rate jump
 
 ### Quality Must Remain High
@@ -490,7 +490,7 @@ After 90 days consistent posting, analyze YOUR data to identify when YOUR specif
 ### Consistency: The Algorithmic Recognition Factor
 
 **Official LinkedIn data:**
-Companies posting weekly see **5.6x more follower growth** than sporadic posters.
+Companies posting weekly tend to see materially more follower growth than sporadic posters.
 
 **Why it works:**
 - Algorithm identifies consistent posters as "active users"
@@ -633,7 +633,7 @@ Multiple creators generated **300-400 additional followers in two weeks** from t
 
 **Why it matters:**
 - Algorithm uses headline heavily in search rankings
-- **Profiles with keyword-optimized headlines appear 40x more frequently** in search results when fully complete
+- **Keyword-optimized headlines surface more often** in search results when fully complete (figure unverified)
 
 ### About Section: 2,600 Characters, First 3-4 Lines Critical
 

references/poll-strategy-guide.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ LinkedIn polls generate high impressions but their effectiveness is declining in
 
 ## Poll Effectiveness (2026 Status)
 
-**Reach multiplier:** 1.64x average (down from 2.1x in 2024)
+**Reach:** Historically above-baseline, now declining — no reliable multiplier (directional; see `references/algorithm-signals-reference.md`)
 **Trend:** Declining. LinkedIn is reducing poll distribution to combat low-quality engagement farming.
 **Verdict:** Use sparingly (1-2 per month maximum). Make every poll count.
 

references/trajectory-strategy-adjustments.md

@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ Before adjusting tactics, identify root causes:
 |-----------|-------------------|------------|-----------|
 | **Posting frequency** | Below goal | Increase by 2x (e.g., 2/wk to 4/wk) | Volume is the #1 lever for algorithmic discovery |
 | **Engagement intensity** | Passive or minimal | 5x5x5 at full intensity + 10 extra comments/day on larger creators | External engagement generates 30-40% of new follower growth |
-| **Format mix** | Text-heavy | Add 2 carousels/week + 1 document post/month | Carousels get 2-3x saves; saves are the strongest growth signal |
+| **Format mix** | Text-heavy | Add 2 carousels/week + 1 document post/month | Carousels tend to earn more saves (figure unverified); saves are the strongest growth signal |
 | **Collaboration pace** | Rare or none | 2 collaborations/month minimum | Cross-pollination is the fastest way to break out of a plateau |
 | **Content emphasis** | General expertise | Shift to 80% save-worthy (frameworks, templates, checklists) | Save-worthy content compounds; engagement-only content doesn't |
 | **Goal management** | Unchanged | Evaluate: extend target date by 3-6 months OR accept higher effort | Unrealistic targets cause burnout; recalibration preserves motivation |
@@ -82,7 +82,7 @@ Before adjusting tactics, identify root causes:
 | **Engagement intensity** | Some but irregular | 5x5x5 daily without exception + focus on niche-relevant creators | Regularity of engagement signals reliability to algorithm |
 | **Format mix** | Mostly text | Add 1 carousel/week minimum | Single format change with highest ROI |
 | **Collaboration pace** | Occasional | Target 1 collaboration/month (tag, co-post, or comment thread) | Even small collaborations expand reach significantly |
-| **Content emphasis** | Balanced | Increase save-worthy ratio to 60% (from ~40%) | Saves drive follower growth 3x more effectively than likes |
+| **Content emphasis** | Balanced | Increase save-worthy ratio to 60% (from ~40%) | Saves drive follower growth more effectively than likes (figure unverified) |
 | **Goal management** | Keep current target | Review in 60 days; extend by 2 months if rate doesn't improve | Give adjustments time to compound |
 
 ### Quick Wins (First 14 Days)

references/video-strategy-guide.md

@@ -305,7 +305,7 @@ LinkedIn now strongly prefers vertical (4:5 at 1080x1350) video on mobile feeds.
 
 ### Native Upload Signals
 
-- **Native upload** (direct to LinkedIn) vs link from YouTube/Vimeo: native gets 2-3x the distribution
+- **Native upload** (direct to LinkedIn) vs link from YouTube/Vimeo: native tends to get materially more distribution (multiplier unverified)
 - LinkedIn cannot index or optimize external video players
 - Always upload the .mp4 file directly