diff --git a/references/trend-scoring-modes.md b/references/trend-scoring-modes.md index bbb6937..635be09 100644 --- a/references/trend-scoring-modes.md +++ b/references/trend-scoring-modes.md @@ -92,6 +92,36 @@ The same priority bands apply to both modes (the composite is on the same 0–10 | 2.0–3.9 | **Low** | Note, skip for now | Park unless the angle sharpens | | 0–1.9 | **Skip** | Off positioning | Off positioning | +## Calibration — the expected score distribution (MR-F6) + +The five dimensions are **model judgment**, and unanchored judgment inflates: an observed sweep +put 13 of 20 candidates in **Immediate** (≥8.0), which makes the band meaningless — if most +things are "draft now", nothing is. The composite is only useful if the bands are **scarce at the +top**. So a scoring pass must calibrate against this distribution expectation, not score each +candidate generously in isolation: + +- In a **typical sweep**, most candidates belong in **Medium–High (4.0–7.9)**. That is the honest + home of "worth writing about, eventually". +- **Immediate (≥8.0) is the exception, not the rule** — reserve it for candidates that are + genuinely exceptional *relative to the rest of this sweep*. As a working target, expect on the + order of **≤3 of 20** in Immediate; a sweep that floods the top band is uncalibrated, not lucky. +- **Skip/Low (<4.0)** is a real outcome — an off-pillar or already-resolved topic should land + there, not get floated to Medium to be polite. + +Mechanics for the pass: + +- **Score relatively across the batch.** A 9–10 on a dimension means "exceptional versus the other + candidates in *this* sweep", not "good in the abstract". Rank the batch, then assign — a flat + batch of 8s is the failure mode this rule exists to catch. +- **The distribution shape is the mechanism; the threshold of what counts as exceptional is the + user's calibration** (the dimension rubrics above + the profile), never a hard-coded fact about + any one operator's topics. Domain-general: the anti-inflation rule travels; the specific bar does + not live here. +- **This is now measurable.** The composite + band are **persisted** on each record (RE-R3a, + `TrendRecord.score`), so the distribution can be checked across runs — e.g. count the Immediate + share of a stored sweep. The MR-F7 band-cap gate (N7) builds on the same persisted signal: a + candidate with no formulable reader-grip is capped below Immediate regardless of composite. + ## Consumers - `agents/trend-spotter.md` — reads the requested mode and applies the matching rubric