Kjell Tore Guttormsen
e2ad190dda
Every reading now leads with "vs your own baseline", and no verdict is given when N is too small to carry one. - stats.ts: median + medianAbsoluteDeviation (robust pair; mean/stddev stay for the alert engine, which wants outlier sensitivity), rollingBaseline with a 10-post positional window, median ± 1·MAD band floored at 0, and a typed insufficient-data refusal below MIN_BASELINE_N=5. readAgainstBaseline returns above/within/below-band, or no-verdict when the baseline was refused. - baselineByGroup + buildBaselineBlock: per-format/per-pillar baselines, each judged on its own N; the reported period is excluded from its own baseline and compared on its median, not its mean. - queue-join.ts (new): read-only date join supplying format/pillar from the post queue. Every ambiguity resolves to unlabelled, an entry labels at most one post, and a missing/broken queue degrades to no labels. - weekly/monthly reports attach the block unconditionally (refusal included); optional in the types, so pre-N17 reports load unchanged. - CLI: report output leads with the baseline; new `baseline [--by format|pillar]` verb with coverage reporting. - report.md leads with baseline framing and prints the code's reading rather than judging the band by eye; WoW loses to the baseline on disagreement. analyze.md Step 2a tests whether the drop is real before diagnosing it. TDD: 58 analytics tests written red first (144 -> 202). test-runner Section 16x, 23 unconditional checks + self-test (247 -> 270; anti-erosion floor 228 -> 251). tsc clean. All suites green: trends 300, brain 134, editions 72, specifics-bank 45, contract-gate 33, hooks 191, tests 35, render 60. Also closes the OKF phase-4 scope follow-up in docs/okf-ingestion/plan.md §8 (coord round 2026-07-25): phase 4 tracks the contract, parse is in scope, and our claim on read_concept/navigate_bundle is withdrawn as unnecessary. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QxvWAjte7vPcF79QeSRvRJ
582 lines
23 KiB
TypeScript
582 lines
23 KiB
TypeScript
import { describe, test } from "node:test";
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import assert from "node:assert/strict";
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import {
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mean,
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standardDeviation,
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trendDirection,
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percentChange,
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deviationsFromMean,
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weightedOutOfNetworkPct,
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median,
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medianAbsoluteDeviation,
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rollingBaseline,
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readAgainstBaseline,
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baselineByGroup,
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buildBaselineBlock,
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BASELINE_WINDOW,
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MIN_BASELINE_N,
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BAND_K,
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} from "../src/utils/stats.js";
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describe("stats", () => {
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describe("mean", () => {
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test("should return mean of values", () => {
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const result = mean([10, 20, 30]);
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assert.equal(result, 20);
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});
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test("should return 0 for empty array", () => {
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const result = mean([]);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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test("should handle single value", () => {
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const result = mean([42]);
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assert.equal(result, 42);
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});
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});
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describe("standardDeviation", () => {
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test("should calculate correctly for known values", () => {
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// For [2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9]:
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// Mean = 5
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// Variance = ((2-5)^2 + (4-5)^2 + (4-5)^2 + (4-5)^2 + (5-5)^2 + (5-5)^2 + (7-5)^2 + (9-5)^2) / 8
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// Variance = (9 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 4 + 16) / 8 = 32 / 8 = 4
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// StdDev = 2
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const result = standardDeviation([2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9]);
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assert.equal(result, 2);
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});
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test("should return 0 for single value", () => {
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const result = standardDeviation([5]);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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test("should return 0 for empty array", () => {
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const result = standardDeviation([]);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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test("should handle uniform values", () => {
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const result = standardDeviation([5, 5, 5, 5]);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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});
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describe("trendDirection", () => {
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test("should detect up trend", () => {
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const result = trendDirection(110, 100);
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assert.equal(result, "up");
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});
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test("should detect down trend", () => {
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const result = trendDirection(90, 100);
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assert.equal(result, "down");
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});
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test("should detect stable trend", () => {
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const result = trendDirection(103, 100);
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assert.equal(result, "stable");
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});
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test("should use custom threshold", () => {
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const result = trendDirection(103, 100, 10);
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assert.equal(result, "stable");
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});
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test("should detect up with custom threshold", () => {
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const result = trendDirection(112, 100, 10);
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assert.equal(result, "up");
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});
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});
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describe("percentChange", () => {
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test("should calculate positive change correctly", () => {
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const result = percentChange(110, 100);
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assert.equal(result, 10);
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});
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test("should calculate negative change correctly", () => {
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const result = percentChange(90, 100);
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assert.equal(result, -10);
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});
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test("should handle zero previous value", () => {
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const result = percentChange(100, 0);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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test("should handle zero current value", () => {
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const result = percentChange(0, 100);
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assert.equal(result, -100);
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});
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test("should handle no change", () => {
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const result = percentChange(100, 100);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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});
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describe("deviationsFromMean", () => {
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test("should calculate correctly for value above mean", () => {
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// Mean of [10, 20, 30] = 20
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// StdDev = sqrt(((10-20)^2 + (20-20)^2 + (30-20)^2) / 3) = sqrt((100 + 0 + 100) / 3) = sqrt(66.67) ≈ 8.165
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// Deviations for 30 = (30 - 20) / 8.165 ≈ 1.225
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const result = deviationsFromMean(30, [10, 20, 30]);
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assert.ok(Math.abs(result - 1.225) < 0.01);
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});
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test("should calculate correctly for value below mean", () => {
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const result = deviationsFromMean(10, [10, 20, 30]);
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assert.ok(Math.abs(result + 1.225) < 0.01); // Negative deviation
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});
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test("should return 0 for uniform data", () => {
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const result = deviationsFromMean(5, [5, 5, 5]);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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test("should return 0 for single value", () => {
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const result = deviationsFromMean(5, [5]);
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assert.equal(result, 0);
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});
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test("should calculate for value at mean", () => {
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const result = deviationsFromMean(20, [10, 20, 30]);
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assert.ok(Math.abs(result) < 0.01);
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});
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});
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/**
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* Out-of-network reach aggregate (N16). The share is per-post, so the only
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* honest roll-up is impressions-weighted: a 50-impression post at 90% must
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* not outvote a 10,000-impression post at 20%.
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*/
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describe("weightedOutOfNetworkPct", () => {
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const post = (impressions: number, outOfNetworkPct?: number) => ({
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metrics: { impressions, outOfNetworkPct },
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});
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test("should weight each share by that post's impressions", () => {
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// (10000*20 + 1000*80) / 11000 = 25.45… — an unweighted mean would say 50.
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const result = weightedOutOfNetworkPct([post(10000, 20), post(1000, 80)]);
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assert.equal(result, 25.5, "Should be the impressions-weighted share, not the plain mean");
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});
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test("should exclude posts that carry no share from the weighting", () => {
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// The 5000-impression post has no reading; folding it in as 0 would drag
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// the answer to 17.5 and invent data that was never entered.
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const result = weightedOutOfNetworkPct([
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post(10000, 20),
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post(1000, 80),
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post(5000, undefined),
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]);
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assert.equal(result, 25.5, "Posts without a share must not dilute the aggregate");
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});
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test("should keep a genuine 0 share in the weighting", () => {
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// (1000*0 + 1000*50) / 2000 = 25 — an explicit zero is data, not absence.
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const result = weightedOutOfNetworkPct([post(1000, 0), post(1000, 50)]);
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assert.equal(result, 25);
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});
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test("should return undefined when no post carries a share", () => {
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const result = weightedOutOfNetworkPct([post(1000), post(2000)]);
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assert.equal(result, undefined, "Absent data must stay absent, never 0");
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});
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test("should return undefined for an empty list", () => {
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assert.equal(weightedOutOfNetworkPct([]), undefined);
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});
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test("should return undefined when the carrying posts have no impressions", () => {
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// A share of zero impressions has no meaning, and the weights sum to 0 —
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// returning 0 here would be a fabricated reading, and NaN a bug.
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const result = weightedOutOfNetworkPct([post(0, 40)]);
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assert.equal(result, undefined, "Zero total weight must yield undefined, never NaN or 0");
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});
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test("should round to one decimal (the UI reading is itself rounded)", () => {
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// (3000*33.3 + 1000*66.7) / 4000 = 41.65 → 41.7
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const result = weightedOutOfNetworkPct([post(3000, 33.3), post(1000, 66.7)]);
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assert.equal(result, 41.7);
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});
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});
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/**
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* Baseline engine (N17). At ~2 posts/week every reading is small-N, so the
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* engine exists to answer one question honestly: is this number different
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* from the operator's own normal, or is it noise? Two disciplines are under
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* test — ROBUSTNESS (median/MAD, not mean/stddev, because one viral post
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* would otherwise define "normal") and REFUSAL (below the minimum N there is
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* no verdict at all, rather than a confident reading of nothing).
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*/
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describe("median", () => {
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test("should return the middle value for an odd count", () => {
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assert.equal(median([30, 10, 20]), 20, "Must sort internally, not trust input order");
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});
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test("should average the two middle values for an even count", () => {
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assert.equal(median([10, 20, 30, 40]), 25);
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});
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test("should return undefined for an empty list, never 0", () => {
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// Same discipline as weightedOutOfNetworkPct: absent data stays absent.
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assert.equal(median([]), undefined);
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});
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test("should be unmoved by a single extreme outlier", () => {
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// The whole reason baseline framing uses median: mean([100,110,120,130,10000])
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// is 2092 — a "baseline" no ordinary post could ever reach.
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assert.equal(median([100, 110, 120, 130, 10000]), 120);
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assert.equal(mean([100, 110, 120, 130, 10000]), 2092);
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});
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});
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describe("medianAbsoluteDeviation", () => {
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test("should return the median of absolute deviations from the median", () => {
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// median = 20; deviations = [10, 0, 10] → MAD = 10
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assert.equal(medianAbsoluteDeviation([10, 20, 30]), 10);
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});
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test("should return 0 for identical values", () => {
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assert.equal(medianAbsoluteDeviation([50, 50, 50]), 0);
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});
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test("should return undefined for an empty list", () => {
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assert.equal(medianAbsoluteDeviation([]), undefined);
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});
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test("should stay small when one outlier inflates the standard deviation", () => {
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// stddev is dragged to ~3950 by the outlier; MAD stays at 10, which is
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// what an honest "normal spread" band needs.
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const values = [100, 110, 120, 130, 10000];
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assert.equal(medianAbsoluteDeviation(values), 10);
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assert.ok(standardDeviation(values) > 1000, "stddev is outlier-dominated by contrast");
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});
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});
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describe("rollingBaseline", () => {
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test("should refuse a verdict below the minimum N", () => {
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const result = rollingBaseline([100, 200, 300]);
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assert.equal(result.status, "insufficient-data", "3 posts cannot support a verdict");
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if (result.status !== "insufficient-data") return;
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assert.equal(result.n, 3);
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assert.equal(result.required, MIN_BASELINE_N);
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assert.ok(result.reason.length > 0, "Refusal must carry an operator-facing reason");
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});
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test("should refuse on an empty history rather than report a zero baseline", () => {
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const result = rollingBaseline([]);
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assert.equal(result.status, "insufficient-data");
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if (result.status !== "insufficient-data") return;
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assert.equal(result.n, 0);
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});
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test("should produce a median and a band once the minimum N is met", () => {
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// median = 120, MAD = 10 → band = [110, 130] at k=1
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const result = rollingBaseline([100, 110, 120, 130, 140]);
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assert.equal(result.status, "ok");
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if (result.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.equal(result.n, 5);
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assert.equal(result.median, 120);
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assert.equal(result.mad, 10);
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assert.deepEqual(result.band, { low: 110, high: 130 });
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});
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test("should keep only the trailing window when history exceeds it", () => {
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// 12 values oldest→newest; the window is the last 10, so the two oldest
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// (1 and 2) must not pull the median down.
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const values = [1, 2, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190];
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const result = rollingBaseline(values);
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assert.equal(result.status, "ok");
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if (result.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.equal(result.n, BASELINE_WINDOW);
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assert.equal(result.window, BASELINE_WINDOW);
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assert.equal(result.median, 145, "Median of the last 10, not of all 12");
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});
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test("should treat the input as oldest-first and never reorder it", () => {
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// Descending input: if the implementation sorted by value it would keep
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// the wrong ten. The last 10 here are 100 down to 10 → median 55.
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const values = [200, 190, 100, 90, 80, 70, 60, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10];
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const result = rollingBaseline(values);
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assert.equal(result.status, "ok");
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if (result.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.equal(result.median, 55, "Window is positional (recency), the median is value-sorted");
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});
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test("should floor the band at 0 for a naturally non-negative metric", () => {
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// median 20, MAD 15 → arithmetic low is 5; with a wider spread it would
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// go negative, which is meaningless for impressions or engagement rate.
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const result = rollingBaseline([0, 5, 20, 35, 90]);
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assert.equal(result.status, "ok");
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if (result.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.ok(result.band.low >= 0, "A negative lower bound is not a readable floor");
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});
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test("should accept a configurable minimum N and window", () => {
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const result = rollingBaseline([10, 20, 30], { minN: 3, window: 3 });
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assert.equal(result.status, "ok", "The threshold is a documented default, not a hard law");
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if (result.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.equal(result.median, 20);
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});
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test("should widen the band with a larger k", () => {
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const narrow = rollingBaseline([100, 110, 120, 130, 140]);
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const wide = rollingBaseline([100, 110, 120, 130, 140], { k: 2 });
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assert.equal(narrow.status, "ok");
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assert.equal(wide.status, "ok");
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if (narrow.status !== "ok" || wide.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.equal(BAND_K, 1, "Default k is documented as 1");
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assert.equal(wide.band.high, 140);
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assert.ok(wide.band.high > narrow.band.high);
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});
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test("should give a zero-width band for a perfectly steady history", () => {
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// MAD 0 is legitimate: the operator's numbers really are that steady.
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const result = rollingBaseline([50, 50, 50, 50, 50]);
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assert.equal(result.status, "ok");
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if (result.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.deepEqual(result.band, { low: 50, high: 50 });
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assert.equal(result.mad, 0);
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});
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});
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describe("readAgainstBaseline", () => {
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const baseline = rollingBaseline([100, 110, 120, 130, 140]); // median 120, band [110,130]
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test("should call a value inside the band normal variation, not a trend", () => {
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// 128 is 6.7% above the median — the kind of number that reads as "up"
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// week-over-week while being entirely inside the operator's own spread.
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assert.equal(readAgainstBaseline(128, baseline), "within-band");
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});
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test("should call a value above the band above baseline", () => {
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assert.equal(readAgainstBaseline(400, baseline), "above-band");
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});
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test("should call a value below the band below baseline", () => {
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assert.equal(readAgainstBaseline(40, baseline), "below-band");
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});
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test("should treat the band edges as inside the band", () => {
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assert.equal(readAgainstBaseline(110, baseline), "within-band");
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assert.equal(readAgainstBaseline(130, baseline), "within-band");
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});
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test("should return no-verdict when the baseline itself was refused", () => {
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const refused = rollingBaseline([100, 200]);
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assert.equal(
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readAgainstBaseline(5000, refused),
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"no-verdict",
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"A refused baseline must not be readable as a verdict by the caller"
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);
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});
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});
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describe("baselineByGroup", () => {
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// Format and pillar are not stored in analytics (they live in the post
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// queue), so the engine takes a label resolver rather than assuming a
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// field — the same join the newsletter calibration uses.
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const p = (group: string, impressions: number) => ({ group, impressions });
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const items = [
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...Array.from({ length: 6 }, (_, i) => p("text", 100 + i * 10)),
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...Array.from({ length: 2 }, (_, i) => p("carousel", 900 + i * 100)),
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];
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test("should compute one baseline per group", () => {
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const result = baselineByGroup(
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items,
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(it) => it.group,
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(it) => it.impressions
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);
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assert.equal(result.size, 2);
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assert.equal(result.get("text")?.status, "ok");
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});
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test("should refuse per group, not globally", () => {
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// 8 posts in total would clear the threshold; carousel alone has 2 and
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// must be refused on its own count. This is the failure the plan names:
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// a verdict about a format the operator has barely used.
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const result = baselineByGroup(
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items,
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(it) => it.group,
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(it) => it.impressions
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);
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const carousel = result.get("carousel");
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assert.equal(carousel?.status, "insufficient-data");
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if (carousel?.status !== "insufficient-data") return;
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assert.equal(carousel.n, 2);
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});
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test("should skip items whose label is undefined rather than bucket them", () => {
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// An unlabelled post (no queue entry) is not a group called "undefined".
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const mixed = [...items, { group: undefined as unknown as string, impressions: 5000 }];
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const result = baselineByGroup(
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mixed,
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(it) => it.group,
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(it) => it.impressions
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);
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assert.equal(result.size, 2, "No phantom group for unlabelled posts");
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});
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test("should skip items whose value is not a finite number", () => {
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const withGap = [...items, p("text", NaN)];
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const result = baselineByGroup(
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withGap,
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(it) => it.group,
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(it) => it.impressions
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);
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const text = result.get("text");
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assert.equal(text?.status, "ok");
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if (text?.status !== "ok") return;
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assert.equal(text.n, 6, "The NaN row must not count toward N");
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});
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});
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describe("buildBaselineBlock", () => {
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const post = (publishedDate: string, impressions: number, engagementRate = 5) => ({
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publishedDate,
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metrics: { impressions, engagementRate },
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});
|
|
|
|
const history = [
|
|
post("2026-01-05", 100, 4.0),
|
|
post("2026-01-07", 110, 4.5),
|
|
post("2026-01-12", 120, 5.0),
|
|
post("2026-01-14", 130, 5.5),
|
|
post("2026-01-19", 140, 6.0),
|
|
];
|
|
|
|
test("should carry a baseline for both headline metrics", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05");
|
|
assert.equal(block.impressions.status, "ok");
|
|
assert.equal(block.engagementRate.status, "ok");
|
|
if (block.impressions.status !== "ok") return;
|
|
assert.equal(block.impressions.median, 120);
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should label the period whose posts are excluded", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05");
|
|
assert.equal(block.historyBefore, "2026-W05");
|
|
assert.equal(block.window, BASELINE_WINDOW);
|
|
assert.equal(block.required, MIN_BASELINE_N);
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should refuse both metrics when history is too short", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history.slice(0, 2), "2026-W05");
|
|
assert.equal(block.impressions.status, "insufficient-data");
|
|
assert.equal(block.engagementRate.status, "insufficient-data");
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should order history by publish date before taking the window", () => {
|
|
// Same five posts shuffled, plus six older ones so the window bites. If
|
|
// the block trusted file order, the window would hold the wrong posts.
|
|
const older = [
|
|
post("2025-12-01", 5),
|
|
post("2025-12-03", 6),
|
|
post("2025-12-05", 7),
|
|
post("2025-12-08", 8),
|
|
post("2025-12-10", 9),
|
|
post("2025-12-12", 10),
|
|
];
|
|
const shuffled = [history[4], older[2], history[0], older[5], history[2], older[0],
|
|
history[1], older[4], history[3], older[1], older[3]];
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(shuffled, "2026-W05");
|
|
assert.equal(block.impressions.status, "ok");
|
|
if (block.impressions.status !== "ok") return;
|
|
// Window = last 10 by DATE: drops 2025-12-01 (5), keeps 6..10 and 100..140.
|
|
// Median of [6,7,8,9,10,100,110,120,130,140] = (10+100)/2 = 55.
|
|
assert.equal(block.impressions.median, 55, "Window must follow publish date, not array order");
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should return a block for an empty history rather than throwing", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock([], "2026-W05");
|
|
assert.equal(block.impressions.status, "insufficient-data");
|
|
if (block.impressions.status !== "insufficient-data") return;
|
|
assert.equal(block.impressions.n, 0);
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
/**
|
|
* The reading is computed HERE, in code, not left to whoever renders the
|
|
* report. A renderer eyeballing whether 128 sits inside [110, 130] is the
|
|
* over-read the whole engine exists to prevent.
|
|
*/
|
|
describe("period reading", () => {
|
|
test("should read the period's own median against the band", () => {
|
|
// Baseline median 120, band [110, 130]. Period median 125 → inside.
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05", [
|
|
post("2026-02-02", 120),
|
|
post("2026-02-04", 130),
|
|
]);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.median, 125);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.reading, "within-band");
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should compare the period MEDIAN, not its mean", () => {
|
|
// Mean of [100, 10000] is 5050 — "above-band" on one viral post. The
|
|
// median is 5050's honest counterpart: 5050 vs median 5050… no: the
|
|
// median of two values is their midpoint, so use three posts where the
|
|
// mean and median genuinely disagree: [100, 110, 10000] → mean 3403,
|
|
// median 110, which is inside the band. The band must not fire.
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05", [
|
|
post("2026-02-02", 100),
|
|
post("2026-02-04", 110),
|
|
post("2026-02-06", 10000),
|
|
]);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.median, 110);
|
|
assert.equal(
|
|
block.period.impressions.reading,
|
|
"within-band",
|
|
"One viral post must not turn an ordinary week into a trend"
|
|
);
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should read a genuinely high period as above the band", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05", [
|
|
post("2026-02-02", 900),
|
|
post("2026-02-04", 1100),
|
|
]);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.reading, "above-band");
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should read a genuinely low period as below the band", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05", [
|
|
post("2026-02-02", 10),
|
|
post("2026-02-04", 20),
|
|
]);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.reading, "below-band");
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should give no verdict when the baseline was refused", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history.slice(0, 2), "2026-W05", [
|
|
post("2026-02-02", 99999),
|
|
]);
|
|
assert.equal(
|
|
block.period.impressions.reading,
|
|
"no-verdict",
|
|
"A thin baseline cannot license a verdict about a big number"
|
|
);
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should give no verdict and no median for a period with no posts", () => {
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05", []);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.median, undefined);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.reading, "no-verdict");
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
test("should read engagement rate independently of impressions", () => {
|
|
// Baseline engagement median 5.0, MAD 0.5 → band [4.5, 5.5].
|
|
// Impressions ordinary, engagement clearly above: the two readings must
|
|
// not be collapsed into one verdict about "the week".
|
|
const block = buildBaselineBlock(history, "2026-W05", [
|
|
post("2026-02-02", 120, 9.0),
|
|
post("2026-02-04", 120, 9.4),
|
|
]);
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.impressions.reading, "within-band");
|
|
assert.equal(block.period.engagementRate.reading, "above-band");
|
|
});
|
|
});
|
|
});
|
|
});
|