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feat(portfolio): K11 — per-run value report, pure projection over the three layers (parity row 25) [skip-docs]

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The S5.4 analog: every run/portfolio pass can produce a deterministic value
report — modelled → expert-corrected → realized, goal progress, a quantified
learning effect, cost against value — with no model call, no clock and no new
state. It is a PURE PROJECTION over what is already persisted (K5 outbox pairs,
§4.2 inbox verdicts, K1 ledger), joined on the verdict_id K5 mints.

The honesty rule (§1) sets the shape, not the layout:
- approved      -> the claim stands        (quantified)
- rejected      -> the claim is void, 0    (quantified — an earned zero)
- approved_with_adjustment -> §4.2 carries NO adjusted amount, so the corrected
  value is UNQUANTIFIED, never back-filled with the claim
- no verdict    -> realized is UNMARKED, never zero-that-reads-as-judged and
  never the modelled figure
Partial quantification is counted in the output (2 of 4 …, 2 UNMARKED) rather
than summed into a full-looking total. Learning is measured, not asserted: a
rising approval share is reported only alongside the modelled→corrected gap that
shrank behind it, over cohorts split by run_id order. Cost (USD, a K6 upper
bound) and value (NOK) sit side by side and are never divided — no sourced FX
rate exists here, and a ratio would invent one.

Surfaces: standalone CLI (valuereport) and an opt-in --value-report on run.py,
which requires --outbox and is refused BEFORE any spend without one; the report
is written on both run outcomes and never rewrites the run's exit code (a budget
stop stays a budget stop).

Six seams detach-proven RED: honesty boundary (corrected + realized), gap
arithmetic, projection purity, run-seam wiring, pre-spend fail-fast, both-outcome
reporting. Fixtures are COMMITTED and generated with the real primitives, so the
id-join under test is genuine.

Note on the purity test: it was green-but-dead in its first form. Snapshotting
the committed fixture tree in place let an earlier test's stray write pre-seed
the 'before' snapshot, so the detached write reproduced it byte-for-byte. Every
test now projects from a per-test copy, and a pinned file-set test guards the
committed tree. Found by running the detach proof — which is what §11 is for.

portfolio.py is deliberately NOT wired: run_portfolio persists nothing, so there
is nothing for a projection to read. Its docstring now says that instead of
promising the wiring it did not get.

562 -> 584 tests green; ruff + mypy --strict clean over 27 src files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MQu2xxwedckjU56byu1aUG
This commit is contained in:
Kjell Tore Guttormsen 2026-07-25 06:25:02 +02:00
commit 4dcdd8017a
18 changed files with 1477 additions and 6 deletions
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13
tests/data/valuereport/inbox/82d6e4e60ae87e14.json Normal file
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{
"decision": "approved_with_adjustment",
"id": "82d6e4e60ae87e14",
"proposal_features": {
"affected_codes": [
"BY-11"
],
"claimed_saving_nok": 60000.0,
"description": "Etterisolering in FV42-P3",
"measure_type": "Etterisolering"
},
"rationale": "fixture verdict for run-004 (approved_with_adjustment)"
}

13
tests/data/valuereport/inbox/94a98883515d1267.json Normal file
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{
"decision": "approved",
"id": "94a98883515d1267",
"proposal_features": {
"affected_codes": [
"VT-07"
],
"claimed_saving_nok": 80000.0,
"description": "VFD-pumpe in FV42-P1",
"measure_type": "VFD-pumpe"
},
"rationale": "fixture verdict for run-002 (approved)"
}

13
tests/data/valuereport/inbox/fe354d69ef8a47b1.json Normal file
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{
"decision": "rejected",
"id": "fe354d69ef8a47b1",
"proposal_features": {
"affected_codes": [
"EL-01"
],
"claimed_saving_nok": 100000.0,
"description": "LED-retrofit in FV42-P1",
"measure_type": "LED-retrofit"
},
"rationale": "fixture verdict for run-001 (rejected)"
}

16
tests/data/valuereport/ledger.json Normal file
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{
"entries": [
{
"affected_codes": [
"VT-07"
],
"amount_nok": 80000.0,
"dimension": null,
"expert": "ke.fixture",
"key": "3826f2b927f7cc7f",
"measure_type": "VFD-pumpe",
"project": "FV42-P1",
"timestamp": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z"
}
]
}

29
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-001-outcome.json Normal file
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{
"attempts": 1,
"checker_decision": "approve",
"outcome": {
"claimed_saving_nok": 100000.0,
"nominal_feasible": 100000.0,
"p10": 80000.0,
"p50": 100000.0,
"p90": 120000.0,
"type": "validated",
"validates": true
},
"provenance": {
"citations": [
{
"file": "tiltak-vfd.md",
"snippet": "VFD paa pumpe P-07",
"span": "L1-L4"
}
],
"model": "unknown",
"role": "proposer",
"tokens_used": 0,
"validator_decision": "validated"
},
"run_id": "run-001",
"validator_decision": "validated",
"verdict_id": "fe354d69ef8a47b1"
}

13
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-001-proposal.json Normal file
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{
"affected_items": [
{
"code": "EL-01",
"quantity": 1.0,
"unit_cost": 100000.0
}
],
"assumptions": {},
"claimed_saving_nok": 100000.0,
"measure": "LED-retrofit",
"project_id": "FV42-P1"
}

29
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-002-outcome.json Normal file
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{
"attempts": 1,
"checker_decision": "approve",
"outcome": {
"claimed_saving_nok": 80000.0,
"nominal_feasible": 80000.0,
"p10": 64000.0,
"p50": 80000.0,
"p90": 96000.0,
"type": "validated",
"validates": true
},
"provenance": {
"citations": [
{
"file": "tiltak-vfd.md",
"snippet": "VFD paa pumpe P-07",
"span": "L1-L4"
}
],
"model": "unknown",
"role": "proposer",
"tokens_used": 0,
"validator_decision": "validated"
},
"run_id": "run-002",
"validator_decision": "validated",
"verdict_id": "94a98883515d1267"
}

13
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-002-proposal.json Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
{
"affected_items": [
{
"code": "VT-07",
"quantity": 1.0,
"unit_cost": 80000.0
}
],
"assumptions": {},
"claimed_saving_nok": 80000.0,
"measure": "VFD-pumpe",
"project_id": "FV42-P1"
}

29
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-003-outcome.json Normal file
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{
"attempts": 1,
"checker_decision": "approve",
"outcome": {
"claimed_saving_nok": 50000.0,
"nominal_feasible": 50000.0,
"p10": 40000.0,
"p50": 50000.0,
"p90": 60000.0,
"type": "validated",
"validates": true
},
"provenance": {
"citations": [
{
"file": "tiltak-vfd.md",
"snippet": "VFD paa pumpe P-07",
"span": "L1-L4"
}
],
"model": "unknown",
"role": "proposer",
"tokens_used": 0,
"validator_decision": "validated"
},
"run_id": "run-003",
"validator_decision": "validated",
"verdict_id": "8ec27d38b3e5a8e2"
}

13
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-003-proposal.json Normal file
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{
"affected_items": [
{
"code": "AU-03",
"quantity": 1.0,
"unit_cost": 50000.0
}
],
"assumptions": {},
"claimed_saving_nok": 50000.0,
"measure": "SD-anlegg",
"project_id": "FV42-P2"
}

29
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-004-outcome.json Normal file
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{
"attempts": 1,
"checker_decision": "approve",
"outcome": {
"claimed_saving_nok": 60000.0,
"nominal_feasible": 60000.0,
"p10": 48000.0,
"p50": 60000.0,
"p90": 72000.0,
"type": "validated",
"validates": true
},
"provenance": {
"citations": [
{
"file": "tiltak-vfd.md",
"snippet": "VFD paa pumpe P-07",
"span": "L1-L4"
}
],
"model": "unknown",
"role": "proposer",
"tokens_used": 0,
"validator_decision": "validated"
},
"run_id": "run-004",
"validator_decision": "validated",
"verdict_id": "82d6e4e60ae87e14"
}

13
tests/data/valuereport/outbox/run-004-proposal.json Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
{
"affected_items": [
{
"code": "BY-11",
"quantity": 1.0,
"unit_cost": 60000.0
}
],
"assumptions": {},
"claimed_saving_nok": 60000.0,
"measure": "Etterisolering",
"project_id": "FV42-P3"
}