feat(s36): deterministic integer-ore estimate scaling with model x effort

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0145ZKPLMVeqM47z2jxxokym

tests/test_costsim.py

@@ -57,3 +57,22 @@ def test_load_pricing_missing_provenance_raises(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
     bad = {"models": _VALID_PRICING["models"]}  # no source/date
     with pytest.raises(ValidationError):
         costsim.load_pricing(_write(tmp_path, bad))
+
+
+def test_estimate_equals_hand_computed() -> None:
+    """Anchor the integer-øre math: m-cheap = 10 øre/1k, effort standard (100%), max_tokens 100_000
+    → 100_000*100//100 * 10 // 1000 = 1000 øre/run; 3 projects → 3000 øre."""
+    pricing = costsim.PricingContract(**_VALID_PRICING)
+    assert costsim.estimate_run_ore("m-cheap", "standard", pricing, max_tokens=100_000) == 1000
+    assert (
+        costsim.estimate_portfolio_ore(
+            "m-cheap", "standard", pricing, n_projects=3, max_tokens=100_000
+        )
+        == 3000
+    )
+
+
+def test_unknown_effort_raises() -> None:
+    pricing = costsim.PricingContract(**_VALID_PRICING)
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="unknown effort"):
+        costsim.estimate_run_ore("m-cheap", "turbo", pricing)

tests/test_costsim_loadbearing.py

@@ -30,6 +30,15 @@ _PRICING = {
     },
 }
 
+_TWO_MODEL_PRICING = {
+    "source": "loadbearing-test prices",
+    "date": "2026-07-15",
+    "models": {
+        "m-cheap": {"ore_per_1k_tokens": 10},
+        "m-dear": {"ore_per_1k_tokens": 50},
+    },
+}
+
 
 def test_costsim_registered_maf_free() -> None:
     """Meta: costsim.py is registered in the MAF-free guard list, so ``test_okf_is_maf_free``
@@ -93,3 +102,26 @@ def test_quality_guidance_is_sourced_never_number() -> None:
         assert price.quality_guidance is not None
         assert price.quality_guidance.source.strip()
         assert price.quality_guidance.note.strip()
+
+
+def test_estimate_is_deterministic() -> None:
+    """SC2 (determinism): identical inputs → identical integer-øre estimate, reproducibly."""
+    pricing = costsim.PricingContract(**_PRICING)
+    a = costsim.estimate_portfolio_ore("m-known", "high", pricing, n_projects=4)
+    b = costsim.estimate_portfolio_ore("m-known", "high", pricing, n_projects=4)
+    assert a == b
+
+
+def test_estimate_scales_with_model_and_effort() -> None:
+    """SC2 (scaling): the estimate varies with BOTH model and effort. Detach point: drop the
+    ``EFFORT_FACTORS[effort]`` term (e.g. hard-code 100%) → low and high collapse to equal → the
+    ``low != high`` assertion goes RED. Control: same model + same effort → identical (isolates the
+    effort variable, so a pass cannot be incidental)."""
+    pricing = costsim.PricingContract(**_TWO_MODEL_PRICING)
+    low = costsim.estimate_run_ore("m-cheap", "low", pricing)
+    high = costsim.estimate_run_ore("m-cheap", "high", pricing)
+    dear_high = costsim.estimate_run_ore("m-dear", "high", pricing)
+    assert low != high, "effort must scale the estimate"
+    assert dear_high != high, "model must scale the estimate"
+    # control: same model + same effort → identical (not incidental)
+    assert costsim.estimate_run_ore("m-cheap", "high", pricing) == high