"""Spike C — blocking deterministic hybrid validator (B1). Fully deterministic; **no MAF builders**. Demonstrates that an out-of-range savings proposal can be **structurally blocked** before it ever reaches an expert, via three stages over a typed IR: 1. **Pydantic IR** (`SavingsProposal`) — field validators + a cross-field `@model_validator` reject malformed proposals at construction (negative quantities, a claimed saving exceeding the affected items' own total). 2. **PuLP solver-in-the-loop** — a real CBC solve bounds the maximum feasible saving (R2). CBC ships in PuLP's wheel; if it is genuinely absent the step **escalates** (`CbcUnavailable`) — no silent LP-relaxation fallback. 3. **Monte Carlo** — stdlib `random` (seeded) + `statistics.quantiles` over uncertain unit-costs give P10/P50/P90 of the feasible saving. To honour D6 (no heavy runs) the CBC solve runs **once**; the MC reuses that LP's closed-form optimum, which is exact for this model. The structural block (stage 4) returns a `Rejection` that is a *different type* from `ValidatedProposal` and carries no percentiles, so it can never be consumed as validated. """ from __future__ import annotations import random import statistics import warnings from contextlib import contextmanager from dataclasses import dataclass import pulp from pydantic import BaseModel, Field, model_validator from portfolio_optimiser.reference_domain import Project from spikes._harness import Budget, live_local_client_or_skip MAX_SAVING_FRACTION = 0.30 """Policy cap: at most 30% of an affected item's cost is realistically recoverable as a saving. The LP bounds the feasible saving by this fraction.""" _MC_SAMPLES = 512 _MC_SEED = 20260624 class CbcUnavailable(RuntimeError): """PuLP's bundled CBC solver is not available — escalate (no silent fallback).""" @contextmanager def _quiet_pulp(): """Silence PuLP 3.x's `PULP_CBC_CMD` DeprecationWarning. The bundled CBC is only reachable via `PULP_CBC_CMD`; PuLP 4.0 will require `pip install pulp[cbc]` + COIN_CMD (a Fase 2 migration note). The warning is cosmetic here.""" with warnings.catch_warnings(): warnings.simplefilter("ignore", DeprecationWarning) yield class AffectedItem(BaseModel): """One project cost line a proposal claims to save against.""" code: str quantity: float = Field(ge=0) # quantities must be >= 0 unit_cost: float = Field(gt=0) @property def total(self) -> float: return self.quantity * self.unit_cost class SavingsProposal(BaseModel): """Typed IR for a candidate cost-saving measure (B1).""" project_id: str measure: str affected_items: list[AffectedItem] = Field(min_length=1) claimed_saving_nok: float = Field(gt=0) # code -> (low_unit_cost, high_unit_cost) for the Monte Carlo step; empty = degenerate. assumptions: dict[str, tuple[float, float]] = Field(default_factory=dict) @model_validator(mode="after") def _claim_within_affected_total(self) -> SavingsProposal: total = sum(item.total for item in self.affected_items) if self.claimed_saving_nok > total: raise ValueError( f"claimed saving {self.claimed_saving_nok} exceeds affected items' total {total}" ) return self @dataclass(frozen=True) class ValidatedProposal: """A proposal that passed every stage. Carries the Monte Carlo percentiles.""" proposal: SavingsProposal p10: float p50: float p90: float nominal_feasible: float @dataclass(frozen=True) class Rejection: """A structurally-blocked proposal. Distinct type, no percentiles — it can never be consumed as a ``ValidatedProposal``.""" proposal: SavingsProposal reason: str def _solve_max_feasible(items: list[AffectedItem], fraction: float) -> float: """Real CBC solve: maximize total saving subject to a per-item upper bound and a global fraction cap. Raises ``CbcUnavailable`` if CBC is genuinely missing.""" with _quiet_pulp(): solver = pulp.PULP_CBC_CMD(msg=False) if not solver.available(): raise CbcUnavailable("PuLP's bundled CBC solver is not available on this platform") prob = pulp.LpProblem("max_feasible_saving", pulp.LpMaximize) xs = [pulp.LpVariable(f"x_{i}", lowBound=0, upBound=it.total) for i, it in enumerate(items)] prob += pulp.lpSum(xs) prob += pulp.lpSum(xs) <= fraction * sum(it.total for it in items) status = prob.solve(solver) if pulp.LpStatus[status] != "Optimal": raise CbcUnavailable( f"CBC did not reach an optimal solution (status={pulp.LpStatus[status]})" ) return float(pulp.value(prob.objective)) def _monte_carlo( proposal: SavingsProposal, *, fraction: float = MAX_SAVING_FRACTION ) -> tuple[float, float, float]: """Vary uncertain unit-costs (seeded) and return (P10, P50, P90) of the feasible saving. Uses the LP's closed-form optimum (= fraction x sum of sampled totals), which is exact here, so we do NOT spawn a CBC subprocess per sample (D6).""" rng = random.Random(_MC_SEED) feasibles: list[float] = [] for _ in range(_MC_SAMPLES): total = 0.0 for item in proposal.affected_items: rng_range = proposal.assumptions.get(item.code) unit_cost = rng.uniform(*rng_range) if rng_range else item.unit_cost total += item.quantity * unit_cost feasibles.append(fraction * total) deciles = statistics.quantiles(feasibles, n=10, method="inclusive") return deciles[0], deciles[4], deciles[8] # P10, P50, P90 def validate_proposal(proposal: SavingsProposal) -> ValidatedProposal | Rejection: """Deterministic blocking validation. Returns a ``ValidatedProposal`` only when the claim is feasible; otherwise a ``Rejection`` that cannot be consumed as validated.""" # Stage 1 (Pydantic) already ran at construction. Stage 2: real CBC solve. nominal = _solve_max_feasible(proposal.affected_items, MAX_SAVING_FRACTION) # Stage 3: Monte Carlo percentiles of the feasible saving. p10, p50, p90 = _monte_carlo(proposal) # Stage 4: structural block — a claim above the optimistic feasible (P90) is out of range. if proposal.claimed_saving_nok > p90: return Rejection( proposal=proposal, reason=f"claimed saving {proposal.claimed_saving_nok:.0f} exceeds P90 feasible {p90:.0f}", ) return ValidatedProposal(proposal=proposal, p10=p10, p50=p50, p90=p90, nominal_feasible=nominal) def self_repair( generate: object, *, max_attempts: int = 3, ) -> ValidatedProposal | Rejection: """Call ``generate(attempt)`` and validate; retry on rejection up to ``max_attempts``, then hard-stop and return the last rejection. Bounded — never loops forever (B4).""" if max_attempts <= 0: raise ValueError(f"max_attempts must be positive, got {max_attempts}") budget = Budget(max_tokens=10**9, max_rounds=max_attempts) # round cap == attempt cap last: Rejection | None = None for attempt in range(1, budget.max_rounds + 1): result = validate_proposal(generate(attempt)) # type: ignore[operator] if isinstance(result, ValidatedProposal): return result last = result assert last is not None return last def proposal_for( project: Project, codes: list[str], *, claimed_saving_nok: float, measure: str = "Reduce scope on selected cost codes", assumptions: dict[str, tuple[float, float]] | None = None, ) -> SavingsProposal: """Build a `SavingsProposal` from a real reference project's cost items (test helper).""" items = [ AffectedItem(code=ci.code, quantity=ci.quantity, unit_cost=ci.unit_cost) for ci in project.cost_items if ci.code in codes ] return SavingsProposal( project_id=project.id, measure=measure, affected_items=items, claimed_saving_nok=claimed_saving_nok, assumptions=assumptions or {}, ) def generate_via_llm(project: Project) -> SavingsProposal: """Gated LLM-generation entry (live arm). ``skip``s without a LOCAL endpoint — the deterministic validator/solver/MC logic is what the gate proves.""" _client = live_local_client_or_skip() # pytest.skip if PORTFOLIO_LOCAL_* unset raise NotImplementedError( # pragma: no cover - reached only with a live endpoint "live LLM generation is a Fase 2 concern; the spike validates crafted IR directly" )