feat(forlop): time course and stability check from own numbers

New script paper/forlop.py reads the same input file as diagnose.py.
It checks whether the steering tolerates its own delay, places the
binding link in the model as the link with a queue, calibrates the size
and start of the increase so that the coordinated rule's first budget
decision sees the numbers in the file, and runs simulate_endo month by
month with and without measures. It also reports what the measure does
to the rest of the chain: police effort, the share diverted, and whether
the bottleneck moves to the links after it.

The example file reproduces section 9.5 and table 10: +19 % now, +12 %
after 12 months, capacity 1,31; 8,3 / 0,74 / 1,10 / 3,5 with measures and
68,7 / 0,65 / 1,26 without. The stability block reproduces section 9.3
with delay 11 and reactivity 3. The script declines to print a time
course when the steering is unstable, when the forecast has not settled
within the horizon, or when the model cannot build the backlog in the
file before the first decision.

sim.py is imported unchanged; paper/data is untouched. diagnose.py gives
identical output for both input files; the bottleneck selection is now a
function so forlop.py can reuse it, and true/false are rejected where a
number is expected. Reviewed by an independent agent; its 14 findings
are addressed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.2 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-11-10 16:20:31 +01:00

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Context

Concept note (Norwegian, LaTeX) and its simulation code. The principle: enforcement effort should track how much, and how seriously, laws are actually broken. Published as open, non-commercial material. Readers are Norwegian, so README and paper are in Norwegian (bokmål); CLAUDE.md and code comments may stay as they are.

Stack

paper/sim.py: Python 3, numpy + scipy (pinned in requirements.txt). Writes paper/data/*.dat, which pgfplots in the LaTeX source reads.
paper/*.tex: LaTeX. main.tex and notat.tex build with pdflatex, karusell.tex with xelatex (font Inter from TeX Live). main.tex = the note (inputs part1-part4, refs), notat.tex = 2-page summary, karusell.tex = slides. Shared preamble.tex. Bibliography is a hand-written thebibliography in refs.tex.
pdf/: the published PDFs. They are build output committed on purpose; rebuild and replace them together with source changes.

Conventions

The core sentence must be quoted verbatim everywhere: «Innsatsen for å håndheve lover og regler bør løpende stå i forhold til hvor mye, og hvor alvorlig, de faktisk brytes.» Short form of the clarification: «Straffebud og strafferammer ligger fast.»
Any change to sim.py must keep paper/data/ byte-identical unless the change is meant to alter results; then text, figures and PDFs change in the same commit.
Licensing is split: text (pdf/, paper/*.tex, README.md, CHANGELOG.md, CLAUDE.md) is CC BY 4.0 (LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0.txt); code and data (paper/sim.py, paper/diagnose.py, paper/forlop.py, paper/eksempel_domstol.json, paper/norge_2025.json, requirements.txt, paper/data/) are MIT (LICENSE). New files follow the same split.
Never commit working documents; private/ is ignored for that purpose.

Commands

Setup: python3 -m venv .venv && .venv/bin/pip install -r requirements.txt
Run simulation (about 2 min, from paper/): ../.venv/bin/python sim.py
Bottleneck diagnosis from own numbers (stdlib only, from paper/): python3 diagnose.py eksempel_domstol.json; must reproduce section 9.5 (utilization 1,28, +19 % capacity). python3 diagnose.py norge_2025.json must match the table in README (1,09 / 1,04 / 0,88 / 1,09).
Time course and stability check from own numbers (needs the venv, from paper/): ../.venv/bin/python forlop.py eksempel_domstol.json; must reproduce section 9.5 and table 10 (critical delay 7,2; +19 % now, +12 % after 12 months, capacity 137,9 = 1,31; with measures 8,3 / 0,74 / 1,10 / +31 % / 3,5; without 68,7 / 0,65 / 1,26). forlop.py imports sim.py and must never require a change there.
Reproduction check after a run: git status paper/data shows no changes (verified 2026-11-10: 22/22 files identical with Python 3.14.0, numpy 2.5.4, scipy 1.18.1)
LaTeX build (from paper/, TeX Live 2026 in /Library/TeX/texbin): pdflatex main.tex and pdflatex notat.tex three times each, xelatex karusell.tex twice; copy to pdf/ (verified 2026-11-10: main 58 pages, notat 2, karusell 16, no undefined references). Build in a scratch copy of paper/ to keep aux files out of the repo, and give each run a time limit: one pdflatex run has been seen to hang.

Workflow

Repository starts private under ktg/; moving it to open/ is the operator's decision.
Run the repo-standard skill before publishing.

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