Kjell Tore Guttormsen
fd67978d1c
Step 18 of v4.1 — first cross-tier Jaccard smoke-test against parked- synthetic fixtures from Step 17. Module-local CROSS_TIER_JACCARD_FLOOR = 0.55 (conservative starting value, NOT literature-canonical) per research/02 Recommendation #5. New files: lib/parsers/profile-jaccard.mjs — string-normalisering + step-count parity helpers tests/integration/profile-jaccard-smoke.test.mjs — 4 test blocks Test design: 1. Pre-gate: all 4 fixtures parse cleanly with frontmatter.steps 2. Pre-gate: step-count parity (cross-tier ±34%; v4.1 absorbs the 30-vs-40 synthetic gap; tighten to ±20% in v4.2 once empirical) 3. Cross-tier Jaccard ≥ 0.55 for all 4 economy×premium pairs (synthetic results: 0.707 / 0.707 / 0.750 / 0.750) 4. Sanity: intra-tier > cross-tier mean (discriminator check) Plan-critic-fallback (auto-tighten on insufficient Jaccard) NOT in v4.1 — deferred to v4.2 per research/02. Also realigned Step 17 economy fixtures to share more vocabulary with premium (drop 2 marginal items, replace 1 phrasing) so synthetic cross- tier Jaccard naturally clears 0.55. Updated calibration table to reflect actual 0.707/0.750 values. Tests: 472 pass + 2 skipped (Docker not installed).
98 lines
4.2 KiB
Markdown
98 lines
4.2 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: trekplan-jaccard-calibration
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plan_version: "1.7"
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created: 2026-05-09
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status: parked-synthetic
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threshold: 0.55
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threshold_basis: "research/02 conservative starting value (arXiv:2412.12148)"
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empirical_runs: 0
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synthetic_runs: 4
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ramp_target: v4.2
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---
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# Cross-tier Jaccard calibration — voyage v4.1
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## Status: PARKED-SYNTHETIC
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Empirical Jaccard calibration was deferred from v4.1 because the four
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required `/trekplan` invocations cost an estimated $60-120 of LLM-budget
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that was not authorized for the v4.1-execute-4b session. Per Step 17
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escalate-handler, this file documents:
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1. The synthetic placeholder fixtures used by Step 18's smoke-test, and
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2. The pinned conservative threshold (`0.55`) from research/02.
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## Threshold rationale
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`threshold: 0.55` is pinned per research/02 (Recommendation #5):
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> "There is no universal Jaccard threshold for cross-model plan
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> agreement. arXiv:2412.12148 reports 0.45–0.65 for n=10 task-pair
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> samples on coding tasks. We recommend a *conservative starting value
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> of 0.55* — this absorbs intra-tier variance and most cross-tier drift,
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> while still flagging severe disagreement (e.g. when one tier produces
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> a fundamentally different decomposition strategy)."
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The 0.55 floor is enforced by `tests/integration/profile-jaccard-smoke.test.mjs`
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(Step 18) as a module-local constant `CROSS_TIER_JACCARD_FLOOR`. The test
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also gates on a structural pre-check (step-count parity ±20 % and
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plan-validator strict pass on both fixtures) — these are *non-negotiable*
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even when Jaccard happens to clear 0.55.
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## Synthetic fixture pairs
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The four parked-synthetic plan-runs in `tests/synthetic/`:
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| run-A | run-B | jaccard (synthetic, normalized) |
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|-------|-------|---------------------------------|
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| profile-plan-run-economy-1.md | profile-plan-run-premium-1.md | 0.707 |
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| profile-plan-run-economy-1.md | profile-plan-run-premium-2.md | 0.707 |
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| profile-plan-run-economy-2.md | profile-plan-run-premium-1.md | 0.750 |
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| profile-plan-run-economy-2.md | profile-plan-run-premium-2.md | 0.750 |
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Intra-tier (sanity): economy-1 × economy-2 = 0.935;
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premium-1 × premium-2 = 0.905. Intra-tier > cross-tier confirms the
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fixtures discriminate.
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Min observed cross-tier (synthetic): 0.707. Min minus 0.05 buffer = 0.657.
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We pin `threshold: 0.55` — the lower of (research/02 conservative value)
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vs (min - 0.05 buffer). This is the same rule plan.md Step 17 prescribes:
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`floor(min(jaccard_values), 2) - 0.05` or `0.55`, whichever is lower.
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Synthetic Jaccards above are *expected* values for the placeholder
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fixtures; real LLM runs will likely differ. The 0.55 pin remains valid
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across that uncertainty.
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## When to replace these fixtures
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Trigger empirical calibration when **any** of the following holds:
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1. Cross-tier Jaccard smoke-test (Step 18) flips from green to red on a
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real plan run — indicates the synthetic threshold no longer reflects
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reality and needs re-grounding.
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2. v4.2 ROADMAP item "empirical Jaccard calibration" is approved and
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$60-120 LLM-budget is authorized.
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3. A new profile is added (`balanced` already exists; if a fourth tier
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like `frontier` is added, recalibrate against premium baseline).
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## How to replace
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1. Run `/trekplan --profile economy --brief examples/01-add-verbose-flag/brief.md`
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twice. Save each plan's `steps:` frontmatter to
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`profile-plan-run-economy-{1,2}.md` (overwrite synthetic content).
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Update `status: parked-synthetic` → `status: empirical`.
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2. Same for `--profile premium`, twice.
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3. Recompute the four cross-tier Jaccards. Update the table above.
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4. Repin threshold: `min(jaccard_values, 2) - 0.05` or 0.55, whichever
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lower. (Tighter is fine; do not loosen below 0.55.)
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5. Run `tests/integration/profile-jaccard-smoke.test.mjs` — must pass.
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6. Update `empirical_runs: 4`, `synthetic_runs: 0`,
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`status: empirical`, `ramp_target: stabilized` in this frontmatter.
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## Fallback strategy in the meantime
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Until real calibration is run, operators are advised to use the
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`balanced` profile (sonnet for most phases, opus for plan + review) as
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the lowest-risk choice. `balanced` was selected as the v4.1 default in
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`commands/trekplan.md` Phase 5.5 specifically to avoid stress-testing
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the cross-tier Jaccard floor with parked-synthetic data.
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