Kjell Tore Guttormsen
126807aee7
Every stage of validate_proposal reasoned only about numbers the proposal itself supplied, so an internally-consistent hallucination cleared the whole gate (F3). A new stage 0 reconciles each affected_item against the project's CostBaseline before the CBC solve: an unknown cost code is rejected, and a real code carrying a quantity/unit_cost outside the configured tolerance (5% default, relative to the baseline value) is rejected. Validation, never repair. The baseline argument is OPTIONAL (None = pre-S4.0 behaviour), but both run paths set it: the road path projects project.cost_items, the bundle path loads cost-baseline.json when the bundle ships one. Bundles written before the amendment stay un-anchored, so the commons-owned goldens run byte-identically; a baseline that exists but is malformed still raises on both loaders. F8: the method-specific cap now comes from the METHOD_CAPS registry (measure type -> fraction, injectable) instead of an energy_efficiency string comparison. The baseline format and tolerance semantics were decided locally — the commons amendment (D-A pt. 2) never arrived, exactly as in S3.2. D7 mirroring stays open. Three portfolio fixtures quoted cost codes belonging to OTHER projects; the new gate caught them. They now quote each project's own lines, and the two copied REPLIES tables import the single source instead of drifting from it. Load-bearing measured (tests/test_s40_cost_baseline_loadbearing.py), six mutations all red: detach the reconciliation stage; detach the magnitude tolerance; detach the road wiring; detach the bundle wiring; ignore the injected cap registry; make the optional loader tolerant of malformed content. Control: with the road wiring detached the repaired portfolio fixtures still pass, so they are not masking the seam. 597 -> 612 tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01JdwK7bQ4BZkWH4t8MRDKb4
224 lines
15 KiB
Markdown
224 lines
15 KiB
Markdown
# portfolio-optimiser
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[](LICENSE)
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[](pyproject.toml)
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[](https://github.com/microsoft/agent-framework)
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A generic, open framework — built on **Microsoft Agent Framework (MAF)** — that finds cost
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savings *inside* each project of a portfolio of independent projects. A swarm of agents
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generates candidate measures; a **mandatory deterministic validator** (solver + Monte Carlo)
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decides the numbers; domain experts judge the outcomes (human-in-the-loop); and the system
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**learns from their verdicts** across runs.
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> **Status:** the full 8-step agentic loop is wired and proven with load-bearing tests, and the
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> end-to-end proof is an **offline simulation** with a scripted stand-in client — no live-model
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> run yet. The **ingest layer** (real data sources) is implemented — file/CSV and SQL on both
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> stacks with bit-identical golden extractions from the shared spec, plus HTTP as a MAF-only
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> demonstrated extension point against a local mock — but exercised only against committed
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> fixtures: no bundle has yet been materialized from a live source. A sibling implementation of
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> the same method on the **Claude Agents SDK** is built in parallel from the same shared spec.
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> **Disclaimer — technical framework only.** Deploying organizations own their processing
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> purposes and assessments (DPIA, risk/ROS, security review). The framework ships the technical
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> prerequisites — local-only mode, provenance, no silent data egress — but makes no compliance
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> guarantees.
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## Built on an LLM wiki: Karpathy's idea, Google's format
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The knowledge architecture is the heart of the project, and it is deliberately not ours:
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- **The idea** is Andrej Karpathy's **"LLM wiki"**: instead of pointing a model at documents
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written for people, you curate a small, versioned body of knowledge written *for the model
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to read* — concept files, explicit structure, explicit links.
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- **The format** is Google Cloud's **[Open Knowledge Format (OKF)](https://github.com/GoogleCloudPlatform/knowledge-catalog/blob/main/okf/SPEC.md)**
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(open spec, v0.1), which formalizes that pattern: a knowledge **bundle** is a directory of
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markdown files with YAML frontmatter (one required field, `type`), a reserved `index.md`
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entry point, and intra-bundle cross-links forming an emergent graph. Custom frontmatter
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fields are allowed and must be preserved — which is exactly where this project's own layers
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(expert verdicts, ingest provenance) live.
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Because OKF is open and vendor-neutral, the *same* bundles are consumed unchanged by both
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reference implementations (MAF and the Claude Agents SDK sibling) — the knowledge outlives any
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particular agent stack.
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**Not RAG.** Agents read a bundle by **navigating** it — `index.md` first, then its
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cross-links, with progressive disclosure — never by keyword retrieval or stuffing the whole
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bundle into a prompt. Query-time retrieval against the bundle is explicitly forbidden by the
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method spec: it would leak the verdict layer around the learning gate.
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## AI-first, humans on top
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A traditional wiki is built for *people* — optimized for humans finding and reading
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information, with machine access bolted on afterwards. This project inverts that order, and is
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a concrete example of what that looks like:
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- The wiki (the OKF bundle) is written **for the model**: it is the agent's working memory and
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the substrate the learning loop reads from and promotes into.
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- The **human affordances are layers on top**: experts judge outcomes by dropping a plain JSON
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verdict file in an inbox folder; an explicit, fail-closed **promotion gate** is the only path
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by which an approved verdict becomes wiki knowledge; reports and reviews are rendered *from*
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the machine-readable layers.
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Humans stay decisive — nothing enters the wiki without an approval — but the primary reader of
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every file is the model, not a person browsing.
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## How it works
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One run, one project, eight steps — with the learning loop closing across runs:
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1. **Understand** — navigate the project's OKF bundle; fold the candidate's *prior expert
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verdicts* into the hypothesis prompt (ExpeL-style, retrieved structurally, never by text).
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2. **Hypothesise** — one typed candidate measure (strict IR, fail-fast schema).
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3. **Debate** — a maker-checker pair argues the reasoning (round-capped).
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4. **Validate** — two falsifiers on the same candidate: the **deterministic validator** gates
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the numbers (blocking, never optional) and the **checker** gates the reasoning. The validator
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is anchored to the project's declared cost baseline, so a proposal cannot invent the cost
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lines it claims to save against.
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5. **Refine** — a rejected attempt retries *informed* by the rejection reason, under hard
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attempt and token caps. Unbounded loops are forbidden everywhere.
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6. **Propose or discard** — a validated proposal with risk percentiles, or a typed rejection.
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7. **Expert feedback** — days later, an expert drops a verdict file in an inbox folder; a
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later run picks it up. Fully resumable; no live session assumed.
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8. **Promote** — an *approved* verdict is lifted into the wiki as a `type: verdict` concept
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file, navigable by the next run. The gate is fail-closed: raw agent output never
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self-promotes.
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Every proposal carries provenance (citations into the bundle, model, validator decision, token
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usage). Every seam above is protected by a **load-bearing test** — a test designed to *fail*
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when the seam is detached, so the loop cannot silently degrade into theater.
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## How it is set up
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- **One shared, framework-neutral core** ([`shared/`](shared/), a git subtree of
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[`portfolio-optimiser-commons`](https://git.fromaitochitta.com/ktg/portfolio-optimiser-commons)):
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the business concept, the normative [method spec](shared/method-spec.md) and
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[ingest spec](shared/ingest-spec.md), the expert-reviewer persona as an Agent Skill, and an
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example bundle with a golden suite as the only ground truth. Both stacks implement from the
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spec alone.
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- **Per project: one OKF bundle** — the bundled examples are hand-curated; the ingest layer that
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materializes a bundle from a source (file catalogues/CSV + SQL, HTTP as a MAF-only demonstrated
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extension point) via a deterministic, schema-validated manifest that runs *before* the loop is
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implemented and exercised against committed fixtures — no bundle has yet been materialized from
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a live source.
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- **Run:** the `run.py` CLI has **three modes** — a documented partition, since one invocation
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cannot exercise every flag:
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- **Single-project** — `PROJECT_ID --docs-dir <dir>`, plus optional `--bundle-dir`,
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`--verdict-dir`, `--outbox-dir` (which requires `--run-id`), `--dimension-config`,
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`--semantic-retrieval`, `--decision`/`--rationale`, and `--live-dry-run`.
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- **Portfolio** — `--portfolio`, plus optional `--goals`, `--ledger`, `--dimension-config`,
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`--semantic-retrieval`; it stops early and prints a `goal reached: …` line when the
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accumulated ledger meets a goal.
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- **Value report (S5.4, read-only)** — `--report --ledger <file>` rolls up the ledger's realized
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savings to stdout: per-project totals, the portfolio total, flagged cross-dimension overlaps
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(each counted once), and per-entry provenance. Add `--json` for deterministic JSON instead of
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the human table. It makes **no model calls** and is mode-exclusive — only `--ledger`/`--json`
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are permitted alongside `--report`; `--report` requires `--ledger`, and a stray `--json`
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without `--report` is refused (rc 1, never silently ignored).
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```bash
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# Single-project, offline drill (builds contracts + clients, stops before the first model call):
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uv run python -m portfolio_optimiser.run FV42-GSV-E1 --docs-dir <docs> --bundle-dir <bundle> --live-dry-run
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# Portfolio run with a savings goal checked against an accumulated ledger:
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uv run python -m portfolio_optimiser.run --portfolio --goals goals.json --ledger ledger.json
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# Read-only value report over an accumulated ledger (human table; add --json for JSON):
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uv run python -m portfolio_optimiser.run --report --ledger ledger.json
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```
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`--semantic-retrieval` (S3.1) is an **opt-in** ranking change, **off by default**. Off, prior
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verdicts are ranked exactly as before: a structural score over the affected cost-code set,
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measure type and magnitude bucket, with surface text deliberately excluded. On, that score is
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blended with a cosine term over the *same* structural triple, which lets a prior verdict on a
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*different* cost-code set outrank one that ties structurally.
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**What this ships is the seam, not better retrieval.** The bundled `FakeEmbedder` is a
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deterministic sha256 projection carrying no semantics, so over a structural tie the resulting
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order is deterministic but arbitrary. Retrieval *quality* depends entirely on injecting a real
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embedder — `--embedder-config` selects one from a closed registry (never an import path; a
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config file can never name arbitrary code to load), and `docs/extending.md` documents the
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`Embedder` protocol. The embedding excludes `description`, matching the structural score and the
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verdict-id hash, so a flag-on run reads no surface text either.
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The flag is accepted in both run modes, but in single-project mode it **requires** `--bundle-dir`
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and `--verdict-dir`: without them it cannot take effect, and the run is refused rather than
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silently ignoring the flag. Nothing about a flag-off run changes, and no savings claim depends
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on it.
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A bundle may hold verdicts about **several candidates**, while its `validator-input.json`
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describes only one. A `type: verdict` file therefore may declare its own retrieval key in
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frontmatter — `affected_codes`, `measure_type`, `claimed_saving_nok` — and is keyed on that;
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omit them and it falls back to the bundle's candidate, exactly as before. The three are **all or
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nothing**: a partial declaration is refused rather than merged with the bundle candidate, since
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the merge would produce a key belonging to neither. `promote_verdict` writes all three, so a
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promoted verdict about one candidate never surfaces for another.
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A bundle may also ship a **`cost-baseline.json`** — the project's actual cost lines,
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`{code: {quantity, unit_cost}}` — and when it does, the deterministic validator reconciles every
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affected item of a proposal against it before anything else runs. A cost code the project does not
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have is rejected, and so is a real code carrying a quantity or unit cost outside the configured
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tolerance (5% by default, relative to the baseline value). Without it, every stage of the gate
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reasons only about numbers the proposal supplied itself, so an internally consistent hallucination
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passes. The reconciliation validates; it never repairs a proposal into the baseline. A bundle that
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ships no baseline is simply un-anchored and runs exactly as before, while a baseline that is
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present but malformed is an error rather than a silent fall-back to un-anchored. On the
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reference-domain (non-bundle) path the project's own cost items are the baseline, so those runs
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are always anchored.
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The **prior-verdict fold — the learning step — happens only on the `--bundle-dir` path**; a
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plain `--docs-dir`-only run is single-shot (no fold). `--decision`/`--rationale` apply to the
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single-project path only and are inert in portfolio mode. **`--outbox-dir` must differ from
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`--verdict-dir`**: writing the raw outbox into a folder later read as an inbox would re-ingest
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raw agent output past the promotion gate (self-contamination) — documented here, deliberately
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not CLI-enforced. Stop criteria and budget caps are required at startup. Try the offline
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end-to-end proof (no model, no network): `uv run python -m portfolio_optimiser.simulation`.
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- **A global token cap across the whole portfolio, enforced before the call.** Per-run caps alone
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let N projects cost N times that with no ceiling over the pass. Pass a
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`PortfolioMeter(PortfolioBudget(max_total_tokens=…, max_tokens_per_run=…))` to `run_portfolio`
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and one ledger bounds the entire pass — and, seeded from `budget.read_spend`, a *series* of
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passes. It bites in three places: a remainder that cannot fund one run refuses the pass at
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startup (`BudgetRefused`); a project that cannot be funded is **never started**, stopping the
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pass structurally (`budget_stop`, completed runs preserved); and a chat call the remainder
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cannot pay for is **refused rather than made** (the post-charge check remains, since real usage
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is only knowable after the response). Spend persists via `budget.write_spend`, which takes an
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explicit stamp and no wall-clock default, so the file is byte-deterministic. Python API only —
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not yet exposed on the CLI.
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## What this enables
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The reference case is portfolio cost review (the example bundle is a building-energy measure),
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but the architecture is designed to generalize to any setting with the same shape — candidate
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measures inside independent projects, numbers a deterministic tool can check, and judgement
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only an expert has:
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- **Portfolio reviews** — cost savings, energy efficiency, maintenance and procurement
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measures, proposed per project and validated against the project's own data.
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- **Compounding organizational memory** — approved expert verdicts become navigable knowledge;
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the next run's hypotheses start from what experts actually decided, including realization
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gaps no solver can compute.
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- **Auditable AI** — an unbroken provenance chain from expert decision back through proposal,
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bundle file and text span, and (with ingest) to the source system, query, and timestamp.
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- **Vendor-neutral knowledge** — the same bundles drive two different agent stacks; switching
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frameworks does not orphan the organization's curated knowledge.
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## Docs
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- [Building a knowledge base](docs/knowledge-base-recipe.md) — the team recipe (technical +
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domain expert) for curating a bundle, with the honest expectation that a good base takes 1–2
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weeks of dedicated work.
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- [Target picture](docs/plan/2026-06-26-maalbilde-agentic-loop.md) — the agentic loop + OKF
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knowledge architecture (north star).
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- [Prior-art & platform research](docs/research/2026-06-23-prior-art-platform.md) (incl.
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implementation register §15).
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- [Ingest target picture](docs/plan/2026-07-03-maalbilde-ingest-lag.md) — connectors and the
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ingest layer (frozen 2026-07-03).
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## Stack & develop
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Python ≥3.10 · MAF via the split GA packages (see `pyproject.toml`) · `uv`. Backend profiles:
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Azure/Foundry (full) + local (fallback).
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```bash
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uv sync
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uv run pytest
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uv run ruff check .
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```
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