Kjell Tore Guttormsen
ecd83066fb
commons (ktg/portfolio-optimiser-commons @ 7d2b46c) is now the source of truth for the framework-neutral shared core; this repo consumes it via git subtree (--squash) at the unchanged shared/ path. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01AaQCFnfsh3tfq1VfzdJpoi
46 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
46 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: reference
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title: "Realiseringsgrad og energy performance gap — verifisert litteratur"
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description: "Kildebelagte tall for gapet mellom modellert og faktisk realisert besparelse, og dets systematiske årsaker. Grunnlaget for verdict-frøets realiseringsgrad."
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tags: [realization-rate, performance-gap, M&V, evaluering, kilder]
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timestamp: 2026-06-29
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---
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# Realiseringsgrad (realization rate) — verifisert litteratur
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**Realiseringsgrad (RR)** = faktisk evaluert besparelse (ex-post) ÷ modellert/påstått
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besparelse (ex-ante). RR < 1 betyr at drift leverte mindre enn modellen lovte. Avviket
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kalles *energy performance gap*. Alle tall under er verifisert mot primærkilde [V].
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| Nivå | Funn | Kilde |
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|---|---|---|
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| Program (regulatorisk default) | Default gross RR **0,90** for kWh/kW/therm; ex-ante «generally over-estimated» | CPUC Resolution E-4952 |
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| Program (lys, drift lavere) | Operational adjustment ned til **81,1 %** (metrede driftstimer 15 % lavere); coincidence factor **0,566** vs antatt 1,0 | National Grid SBS 2010 (DNV KEMA) |
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| Program (lys, drift høyere) | Hours-of-Use RR **106,5 %**; coincidence 72,2 % — gapet går **begge veier** | Massachusetts Impact Evaluation 2010 |
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| Parameter (driftstimer) | Metret **3 053 t/år** vs antatt **3 772 t/år** (≈19 % lavere); CV ≈ 0,5 | Efficiency Maine 2021 |
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| Portefølje | Commercial lighting **98 %** vs residential **61 %** vs total **93 %** | LADWP Retrospective FY15/16–19/20 |
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| Bygg (grønne næringsbygg) | Predikert besparelse **1,5–3×** realisert; ~⅓ av LEED-bygg bruker mer energi | "Mind the energy performance gap", ScienceDirect |
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| Måleterskel | Besparelse bør overstige **~10 % av baseline** for å skilles pålitelig fra støy | FEMP/RDH M&V-veiledning |
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## Systematiske årsaker (hvorfor faktisk < modellert) [V]
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1. **Driftstimer / Hours-of-Use** — dominerende. Timeplan-baserte estimat (det Option A
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stipulerer) treffer sjelden metret brenntid (3 053 vs 3 772).
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2. **Baseline- og værjustering** — over-predikert baseline blåser opp absolutt besparelse.
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3. **Coincidence / diversity factor** — for effekt(kW): andel last under nett-topp ~0,57–0,72, ikke 1,0.
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4. **HVAC interactive effects** — mindre spillvarme → endret kjøle-/varmebehov; «too small to measure», stipuleres.
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5. **In-service rate, drift & persistens** — ikke alt installeres/forblir; styringer overstyres; degradering.
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6. **Måleusikkerhet** — under ~10 %-terskelen drukner signalet i støy.
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7. **Rebound / atferd** — mer lys på, lengre, fordi det «koster mindre».
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## Kilder (URL)
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- EVO IPMVP Generally Accepted M&V Principles (okt. 2018): https://evo-world.org/images/corporate_documents/IPMVP-Generally-Accepted-Principles_Final_26OCT2018.pdf
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- DOE/NREL Uniform Methods Project, Ch. 2 Commercial & Industrial Lighting (NREL 68558): https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68558.pdf
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- Massachusetts Impact Evaluation of 2010 Prescriptive Lighting: https://ma-eeac.org/wp-content/uploads/Impact-Evaluation-of-2010-Prescriptive-Lighting-Installations-Final-Report-6-21-13.pdf
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- National Grid SBS 2010 Prescriptive Lighting (DNV KEMA): https://www.nationalgridus.com/media/pdfs/our-company/eereports/2014-ngrid-sbs-impact-eval-final-prot.pdf
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- Efficiency Maine Retail & Distributor Lighting 2021: https://www.efficiencymaine.com/docs/Retail-and-Distributor-Lighting-Final-Impact-Evaluation-Report-2021.pdf
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- LADWP Retrospective Impact Evaluation FY15/16–19/20: https://www.ladwp.com/sites/default/files/2024-01/LADWP%20Retrospective%20Report%20FINAL%20V4.pdf
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- CPUC Resolution E-4952: https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/publisheddocs/published/g000/m232/k459/232459122.pdf
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- "Mind the energy performance gap" (ScienceDirect): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344918303860
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- SSB Elektrisitetspriser (kraftpris tjenesteytende næringer, Q1 2026): https://www.ssb.no/energi-og-industri/energi/statistikk/elektrisitetspriser
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