Kjell Tore Guttormsen
ecd83066fb
commons (ktg/portfolio-optimiser-commons @ 7d2b46c) is now the source of truth for the framework-neutral shared core; this repo consumes it via git subtree (--squash) at the unchanged shared/ path. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01AaQCFnfsh3tfq1VfzdJpoi
3.9 KiB
3.9 KiB
| type | title | description | tags | timestamp | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| reference | Realiseringsgrad og energy performance gap — verifisert litteratur | Kildebelagte tall for gapet mellom modellert og faktisk realisert besparelse, og dets systematiske årsaker. Grunnlaget for verdict-frøets realiseringsgrad. |
|
2026-06-29 |
Realiseringsgrad (realization rate) — verifisert litteratur
Realiseringsgrad (RR) = faktisk evaluert besparelse (ex-post) ÷ modellert/påstått besparelse (ex-ante). RR < 1 betyr at drift leverte mindre enn modellen lovte. Avviket kalles energy performance gap. Alle tall under er verifisert mot primærkilde [V].
| Nivå | Funn | Kilde |
|---|---|---|
| Program (regulatorisk default) | Default gross RR 0,90 for kWh/kW/therm; ex-ante «generally over-estimated» | CPUC Resolution E-4952 |
| Program (lys, drift lavere) | Operational adjustment ned til 81,1 % (metrede driftstimer 15 % lavere); coincidence factor 0,566 vs antatt 1,0 | National Grid SBS 2010 (DNV KEMA) |
| Program (lys, drift høyere) | Hours-of-Use RR 106,5 %; coincidence 72,2 % — gapet går begge veier | Massachusetts Impact Evaluation 2010 |
| Parameter (driftstimer) | Metret 3 053 t/år vs antatt 3 772 t/år (≈19 % lavere); CV ≈ 0,5 | Efficiency Maine 2021 |
| Portefølje | Commercial lighting 98 % vs residential 61 % vs total 93 % | LADWP Retrospective FY15/16–19/20 |
| Bygg (grønne næringsbygg) | Predikert besparelse 1,5–3× realisert; ~⅓ av LEED-bygg bruker mer energi | "Mind the energy performance gap", ScienceDirect |
| Måleterskel | Besparelse bør overstige ~10 % av baseline for å skilles pålitelig fra støy | FEMP/RDH M&V-veiledning |
Systematiske årsaker (hvorfor faktisk < modellert) [V]
- Driftstimer / Hours-of-Use — dominerende. Timeplan-baserte estimat (det Option A stipulerer) treffer sjelden metret brenntid (3 053 vs 3 772).
- Baseline- og værjustering — over-predikert baseline blåser opp absolutt besparelse.
- Coincidence / diversity factor — for effekt(kW): andel last under nett-topp ~0,57–0,72, ikke 1,0.
- HVAC interactive effects — mindre spillvarme → endret kjøle-/varmebehov; «too small to measure», stipuleres.
- In-service rate, drift & persistens — ikke alt installeres/forblir; styringer overstyres; degradering.
- Måleusikkerhet — under ~10 %-terskelen drukner signalet i støy.
- Rebound / atferd — mer lys på, lengre, fordi det «koster mindre».
Kilder (URL)
- EVO IPMVP Generally Accepted M&V Principles (okt. 2018): https://evo-world.org/images/corporate_documents/IPMVP-Generally-Accepted-Principles_Final_26OCT2018.pdf
- DOE/NREL Uniform Methods Project, Ch. 2 Commercial & Industrial Lighting (NREL 68558): https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68558.pdf
- Massachusetts Impact Evaluation of 2010 Prescriptive Lighting: https://ma-eeac.org/wp-content/uploads/Impact-Evaluation-of-2010-Prescriptive-Lighting-Installations-Final-Report-6-21-13.pdf
- National Grid SBS 2010 Prescriptive Lighting (DNV KEMA): https://www.nationalgridus.com/media/pdfs/our-company/eereports/2014-ngrid-sbs-impact-eval-final-prot.pdf
- Efficiency Maine Retail & Distributor Lighting 2021: https://www.efficiencymaine.com/docs/Retail-and-Distributor-Lighting-Final-Impact-Evaluation-Report-2021.pdf
- LADWP Retrospective Impact Evaluation FY15/16–19/20: https://www.ladwp.com/sites/default/files/2024-01/LADWP%20Retrospective%20Report%20FINAL%20V4.pdf
- CPUC Resolution E-4952: https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/publisheddocs/published/g000/m232/k459/232459122.pdf
- "Mind the energy performance gap" (ScienceDirect): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344918303860
- SSB Elektrisitetspriser (kraftpris tjenesteytende næringer, Q1 2026): https://www.ssb.no/energi-og-industri/energi/statistikk/elektrisitetspriser