Commit graph

4 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
e6e9d3c74d
fix: correct findings from the pre-publication quality check
Seventeen independent read-only reviews (figures and sources, the diagnosis
tool, the mathematics, simulation numbers, appendix C, references, claims,
language, layout, summary and slides, README and repo, cross-document
consistency), each followed by an independent verifier. Every fix below was
checked against the source or recomputed before it was applied.

Norwegian diagnosis (paper/norge_2025.json, README):
- The prison outflow mixed units: it multiplied "cases handled" (16 000) by
  the share of enforced cases. It now uses enforced cases (KDI annual report
  2025, p. 70: 5 180 in the community = 58 %, so about 3 750 in prison), and
  the queue excludes sentences waiting for electronic monitoring.
- Result changes: prison and police/prosecution tie at utilisation 1,09; the
  tool points to prison on backlog growth. README says the difference is
  smaller than the uncertainty and lists the sensitivity (1,06 to 1,10).
- Police backlog taken directly from POD report 1/2026 fig. 3.2.1 (31 908
  vs 30 295); page references to the courts report corrected (15 and 18).

diagnose.py:
- Norwegian error messages instead of tracebacks for bad input; same
  expansion threshold as sim.py; tie message; honest wording when no
  forecast is given, when the constraint is the first link, and when a
  backlog grows with no link above full utilisation.

Note, summary and slides (PDFs rebuilt: 58, 2 and 16 pages):
- b_sat in (13') lacked the factor 1/T-bar; lowest trust in appendix C is
  0,33, not 0,47; nine numbers rounded or quoted wrongly; one sensitivity
  sentence was wrong for mu_4; the abstract claimed more police effort does
  not reduce crime, which the model contradicts.
- The decommissioning rule is described as the code implements it.
- Three references corrected, one added (Srivastav et al. 2019).
- Core sentence quoted verbatim in README and section 9.
- Layout: duplicate hyperref targets, the overfull box in table 1, three
  figures with colliding labels, one stranded heading.
- Summary and slides no longer say "not tested on Norwegian data"; slide 16
  gives the repository address.

sim.py and paper/data/ are untouched.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.2 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-11-10 15:46:23 +01:00
a167953307
docs(paper): acknowledge Norwegian precedents for chain and legislation proposals
- Forsøksloven (1992, amended 2021) already allows four-year trials in public
  administration, but only for organisation and task allocation and never by
  restricting rights; trials with procedure and sanction forms need their own
  legal basis.
- A general sunset act for regulations was rejected by the Storting in 2001
  (Innst. O. nr. 77 (2000-2001)); the proposal here covers intrusive powers only.
- Riksrevisjonen, Dokument 3:13 (2007-2008), found deadline breaches across
  several links of the chain.
- NOU 2020:11, p. 197, records a minority of the previous court commission
  warning that one oversized link creates bottlenecks.

All four were read in the primary source (Lovdata, stortinget.no,
riksrevisjonen.no, regjeringen.no PDF). Not built: TeX not installed yet.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-11-10 12:08:30 +01:00
7a9af46350
docs(paper): acknowledge prior work and ongoing chain-forecasting efforts
The prior-work paragraph claimed novelty for the coupling only, but left out
three bodies of work a reviewer would raise:
- dynamic optimal law enforcement (Feichtinger and Tragler 2002; Tragler,
  Caulkins and Feichtinger 2001; Grass et al. 2008)
- whole-chain forecasting models already used for justice budgets
  (Netherlands PMJ since 2004, Swedish joint forecasts since 2008,
  England and Wales MoJ projections, NSW simulation model)
- Norwegian work under way (joint chain statistics until a forecasting
  model is ready, 2023; police priority-effectiveness assignment due
  31.12.2026; Riksadvokaten's priorities, stable over time by its own account)

Also adds harm-focused policing (ONS 2016, Sherman 2013, Ratcliffe 2015),
risk-based regulation (Black and Baldwin 2010), Pontell 1985, Olaya et al.
2018, Hao et al. 2026 (preprint, marked as such) and Azaria et al. 2023. The
contribution is restated as three things: the stability analysis of the
delayed loop, the coupling in one model, and the shared-constraint method.

Every new reference was checked against Crossref or the publisher's or
issuer's own document. pdf/ is not rebuilt: no TeX installation here.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-11-10 10:45:20 +01:00
85bc99b257
feat: initial commit of concept note v2 and simulation
Concept note "Den dynamiske rettsstaten" version 2: PDFs, LaTeX source,
simulation (sim.py) and figure data. Working documents are kept out of
the repository.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-11-10 10:10:20 +01:00