The prior-work paragraph claimed novelty for the coupling only, but left out
three bodies of work a reviewer would raise:
- dynamic optimal law enforcement (Feichtinger and Tragler 2002; Tragler,
Caulkins and Feichtinger 2001; Grass et al. 2008)
- whole-chain forecasting models already used for justice budgets
(Netherlands PMJ since 2004, Swedish joint forecasts since 2008,
England and Wales MoJ projections, NSW simulation model)
- Norwegian work under way (joint chain statistics until a forecasting
model is ready, 2023; police priority-effectiveness assignment due
31.12.2026; Riksadvokaten's priorities, stable over time by its own account)
Also adds harm-focused policing (ONS 2016, Sherman 2013, Ratcliffe 2015),
risk-based regulation (Black and Baldwin 2010), Pontell 1985, Olaya et al.
2018, Hao et al. 2026 (preprint, marked as such) and Azaria et al. 2023. The
contribution is restated as three things: the stability analysis of the
delayed loop, the coupling in one model, and the shared-constraint method.
Every new reference was checked against Crossref or the publisher's or
issuer's own document. pdf/ is not rebuilt: no TeX installation here.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The note said most estimates lie between -0.1 and -0.5 (citing Chalfin and
McCrary 2017). The review instead gives a best guess of about -0.4 (violent)
and -0.2 (property), with quasi-experimental estimates spanning roughly -0.1
to -2, few of them significant (JEL 55(1), pp. 14 and 37). The conclusion
that the model's -0.83 is at the strong end still holds.
pdf/ is not rebuilt: no TeX installation on this machine.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
PDFs and LaTeX source are CC BY 4.0; sim.py, requirements.txt and the
figure data stay MIT. README and CLAUDE.md state the split.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Concept note "Den dynamiske rettsstaten" version 2: PDFs, LaTeX source,
simulation (sim.py) and figure data. Working documents are kept out of
the repository.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
